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Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain

The authors consider how and by how much China?s stellar economic performance might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the next decade: unemployment, poverty, and social unrest; corruption; HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases; water resource problems and pollution; energy consumption and prices; the fragile financial system and state-owned enterprises; curtailed foreign direct investment; and serious military conflicts.

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  • "Zhongguo jing ji mian lin de ba da di ren"
  • "中国经济面临的八大敌人"

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  • "The authors consider how and by how much China?s stellar economic performance might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the next decade: unemployment, poverty, and social unrest; corruption; HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases; water resource problems and pollution; energy consumption and prices; the fragile financial system and state-owned enterprises; curtailed foreign direct investment; and serious military conflicts."@en
  • "The focus of this research is the potential adversities or fault lines (the terms are used synonymously) facing China's economy and affecting its prospects for sustaining high growth through the coming decade. Thus, we deliberately concentrate on what might go seriously awry in the economy and, in the process, slow or even reverse China's double-digit growth rates in the 1980s and high single-digit growth in the 1990s and the early part of the 21st century. This book is the product of a project jointly sponsored by the Office of Net Assessment in the Department of Defense and the Smith Richardson Foundation. Their sponsorship was based on a mutual understanding that their joint support would enable the work to be expanded beyond what would have been possible if funding were confined to one sponsor alone. The project was implemented through RAND's National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. The book should be of interest and use to those in the policy community and the academic community concerned with China and with the economic and security environment in the Asia-Pacific region."@en
  • "What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts-the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects."
  • "What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts--the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects. For each of the eight fault lines, the authors estimate a "bottom-line" in terms of expected effects on China's annual growth rate over the next decade, drawing on a variety of methods, models, and judgments to make these estimates. The authors suggest that the probability that none of these individual setbacks will occur is low, while the probability that all will occur is still lower. Because of interdependencies among the fault lines, it is highly likely that several separate adversities will cluster if any one of them occurs. For examples: an internal financial crisis would have serious negative effects on the relative attractiveness of foreign investment in China, contributing to shrinkage of foreign direct investment; epidemic disease would intensify water pollution problems and would discourage foreign investment."
  • "What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts--the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects. For each of the eight fault lines, the authors estimate a "bottom-line" in terms of expected effects on China's annual growth rate over the next decade, drawing on a variety of methods, models, and judgments to make these estimates. The authors suggest that the probability that none of these individual setbacks will occur is low, while the probability that all will occur is still lower. Because of interdependencies among the fault lines, it is highly likely that several separate adversities will cluster if any one of them occurs. For examples: an internal financial crisis would have serious negative effects on the relative attractiveness of foreign investment in China, contributing to shrinkage of foreign direct investment; epidemic disease would intensify water pollution problems and would discourage foreign investment."@en

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  • "Electronic resource"
  • "Livres électroniques"
  • "Electronic books"
  • "Electronic books"@en

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  • "中國經濟領域的斷層綫 = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "Zhongguo jing ji ling yu de duan ceng xian = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "Fault Lines In China's Economic Terrain"
  • "Fault Lines in China's Economic Terrain"@en
  • "裂缝 中国经济面临的八大敌人 = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "Lie feng Zhongguo jing ji mian lin de ba da di ren = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "Fault lines in China's economic terrain"@en
  • "Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "裂缝 : 中国经济面临的八大敌人 = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"
  • "Fault lines in China's economic terrain : prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, Dept. of Defense and the Smith Richardson Foundation"
  • "Lie feng : Zhongguo jing ji mian lin de ba da di ren = Fault lines in China's economic terrain"

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