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http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/1172581839

The signal and the noise why so many predictions fail-- but some don't

Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.

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  • "Ru he cong ju liang za xun zhong,kan chu zhong yao de xun hao?"
  • "如何從巨量雜訊中, 看出重要的訊號?"
  • "Why so many predictions fail-- but some don't"@en
  • "Ru he cong ju liang za xun zhong, kan chu zhong yao de xun hao?"
  • "Why so many predictionsfail--but some don't"
  • "如何從巨量雜訊中,看出重要的訊號?"

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  • "Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction."@en
  • "Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction."
  • "Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?"
  • "The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction."
  • "The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction."@en

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  • "History"
  • "History"@en
  • "Electronic books"@en
  • "Nonfiction"

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  • "精準預測 : 如何從巨量雜訊中, 看出重要的訊號?"
  • "Jing zhun yu ce : ru he cong ju liang za xun zhong, kan chu zhong yao de xun hao?"
  • "精準預測 : 如何從巨量雜訊中,看出重要的訊號?"
  • "The signal and the noise why so many predictions fail-- but some don't"@en
  • "The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail - but some don't"
  • "The signal and the noise why so many predictions fail--but some don't"
  • "The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail-- but some don't"
  • "The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail-- but some don't"@en
  • "The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail, but some don't"
  • "Jing zhun yu ce : ru he cong ju liang za xun zhong,kan chu zhong yao de xun hao?"
  • "The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't"

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