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Dire demographics population trends in the Russian Federation

In the past decade, the Russian Federation has experienced many seemingly unfavorable demographic trends, the two most significant of which are a declining number of births and a rising number of deaths. These trends are likely to continue for some time. Some analysts fear that the Russian population, currently at about 145 million, could decline to less than 100 million. This demographic decline raises several issues for Russia, including the need for health care improvements; the challenges posed by a declining working-age population to support a growing elderly population; and still other issues affecting Russia's ability to reform its economy, government, and society. This report examines trends in overall population size, fertility rates, and mortality rates and issues in health care, elderly support, and national security arising from these trends. Since 1992, the population of Russia has declined by three million. The annual number of Russian births fell by 1.3 million between 1987 and 1999, while the annual number of Russian deaths increased by 500,000. Net immigration has prevented Russian population losses from being even greater, with many ethnic Russians migrating to Russia from borderlands formerly in the Soviet Union. The most recent statistics, however, indicate that this ethnic Russian immigration is declining and, as a result, it is unlikely to be an important source of population stabilization in the future. There is also public resistance to immigration and concerns about the security risks created by immigration of nonethnic Russians. If Russian immigration cannot be increased, then the only other alternatives for population stability are to increase birth rates or to reduce death rates.

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  • "In the past decade, the Russian Federation has experienced many seemingly unfavorable demographic trends, the two most significant of which are a declining number of births and a rising number of deaths. These trends are likely to continue for some time. Some analysts fear that the Russian population, currently at about 145 million, could decline to less than 100 million. This demographic decline raises several issues for Russia, including the need for health care improvements; the challenges posed by a declining working-age population to support a growing elderly population; and still other issues affecting Russia's ability to reform its economy, government, and society. This report examines trends in overall population size, fertility rates, and mortality rates and issues in health care, elderly support, and national security arising from these trends. Since 1992, the population of Russia has declined by three million. The annual number of Russian births fell by 1.3 million between 1987 and 1999, while the annual number of Russian deaths increased by 500,000. Net immigration has prevented Russian population losses from being even greater, with many ethnic Russians migrating to Russia from borderlands formerly in the Soviet Union. The most recent statistics, however, indicate that this ethnic Russian immigration is declining and, as a result, it is unlikely to be an important source of population stabilization in the future. There is also public resistance to immigration and concerns about the security risks created by immigration of nonethnic Russians. If Russian immigration cannot be increased, then the only other alternatives for population stability are to increase birth rates or to reduce death rates."@en
  • "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has seen its births plummet and its deaths increase sharply. Mortality increases have been particularly steep for working-age males and are often attributable to alcohol-related causes. Some analysts fear the Russian population could decline by nearly a third between now and 2050. In the short-term, Russia may be better able to stabilize its population numbers by focusing more on curbing mortality than increasing fertility. Past Soviet pronatalist incentives had only negligible long-term effects on the number of births. The types of health problems indicated by high Russian mortality rates point to a greater need for preventive rather than curative care. In sum, the demographic problems Russia faces indicate it may do better to focus on qualitative indicators, such as the health and welfare of its population, than on quantitative indicators, such as the overall size of its population."@en
  • "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has seen its births plummet and its deaths increase sharply. Mortality increases have been particularly steep for working-age males and are often attributable to alcohol-related causes. Some analysts fear the Russian population could decline by nearly a third between now and 2050. In the short-term, Russia may be better able to stabilize its population numbers by focusing more on curbing mortality than increasing fertility. Past Soviet pronatalist incentives had only negligible long-term effects on the number of births. The types of health problems indicated by high Russian mortality rates point to a greater need for preventive rather than curative care. In sum, the demographic problems Russia faces indicate it may do better to focus on qualitative indicators, such as the health and welfare of its population, than on quantitative indicators, such as the overall size of its population."
  • "Population Matters, a RAND program of policy-relevant research communication MR-1273-WFHF/DLPF/RF."
  • "Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has seen its births plummet and its deaths increase sharply. Mortality increases have been particularly steep for working-age males and are often attributable to alcohol-related causes. Some analysts fear the Russian population could decline by nearly a third between 2000 and 2050. In the short-term, Russia may be better able to stabilize its population numbers by focusing more on curbing mortality than increasing fertility. Past Soviet pronatalist incentives had only negligible long-term effects on the number of births. The types of health problems indicated by high Russian mortality rates point to a greater need for preventive rather than curative care. In sum, the demographic problems Russia faces indicate it may do better to focus on qualitative indicators, such as the health and welfare of its population, than on quantitative indicators such as the overall size of its population."@en

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  • "Statistics"
  • "Statistics"@en
  • "Electronic books"@en
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  • "Dire demographics population trends in the Russian Federation"@en
  • "Dire demographics : population trends in the Russian Federation"
  • "Dire Demographics. Population Trends in the Russian Federation"@en