Regional Economic Outlook

Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Coun.

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"Prepared by the IMF's African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of sub-Saharan Africa and provides in-depth analysis of selected topics. The April 2009 REO includes two main chapters: the economic impact of the global financial crisis and the impact of the crisis on Africa's financial systems. Detailed country data are provided in a statistical appendix."
"Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Coun."
"Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Coun."@en
"Asia has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Despite strong fundamentals, its pervasive linkages to the rest of the world have exposed it to the collapse of demand and credit in advanced countries. Exports and industrial production have fallen sharply, capital has started to flow out of the region, and leading indicators suggest further weakness ahead. Against this background, the May 2009 APD REO will discuss the latest developments in Asia, examine the prospects for the period ahead, and consider the policy steps needed to revive economic activity and restore corporate and financia"@en
"2008 is shaping up as a challenging year for Asia. Activity in most economies remains fairly buoyant, but growth in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe is slowing sharply. Given its extensive trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world, Asia is unlikely to delink. At the same time, inflation pressures are picking up across much of the region. Moreover, the still-unfolding global financial crisis adds a dimension of uncertainty to the picture, and the balance of risks remains on the downside. However, most countries in the region are well-placed to undertake counter-cy."@en
"The global crisis is now affecting the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia region, and economic and financial vulnerabilities are rising. In the Middle East and North Africa, good economic fundamentals, appropriate policy responses, and sizable currency reserves are helping mitigate the impact of the shock. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, lower commodity prices and adverse economic developments in Russia have hit hard. The report notes that countries should prepare for the contingency of a prolonged global slowdown by supporting domestic demand for a longer period and strengthening."@en
"Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well."@en
"Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South Africa and some other middle-income countries were caught in the turbulence of international financial markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external positions than in past downturns, most countries in the region have been able to partially absorb external shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing interest rates."@en
"Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hard by the global recession, but signs of resilience remain. While South Africa and some other middle-income countries were caught in the turbulence of international financial markets, and oil exporters saw government revenues plunge, some countries with wider commodity bases have so far escaped the worst of the crisis. Also, and reassuringly, with stronger initial fiscal and external positions than in past downturns, most countries in the region have been able to partially absorb external shocks by allowing fiscal deficits to rise and reducing interest rates."
"In spite of a slower U.S. economy and recent market turbulence, growth in the Latin America and Caribbean region has continued at a robust pace. This reports explores the resilience of the LAC region to external shocks and the policy challenges involved in sustaining the region's improved fundamentals. The analysis focuses, in particular, on real and financial linkages with the United States, the strength of underlying fiscal positions, and the sustainability of the ongoing credit boom."
"The November 2008 Asia and Pacific REO focuses on the difficult economic environment facing policymakers in the region. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the outlook for the region. With growth slowing, and the global financial crisis increasingly affecting the region, macroeconomic and financial policies will need to be proactive. Chapter 2 looks more closely at inflation in Asia, finding that it is increasingly imported and volatile, which raises important questions about monetary policy frameworks in the future. Chapter 3 takes a longer-term look at how the expected rapid aging of the regio."@en
"The May 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Europe anticipates that recovery in the region will solidify, with recoveries in advanced and emerging Europe likely to be mutually reinforcing. Advanced Europe continues to absorb most of emerging Europe's exports, while the role of emerging Europe as a market for advanced Europe will expand. Chapters discuss the outlook and policy priorities for advanced and emerging Europe, and analyze the role of financial integration in the buildup and resolution of imbalances within the euro area."@en
"The global economic crisis has taken a toll on the Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate policy responses have helped mitigate the impact. Looking ahead, the region's oil exporters are expected to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on debt sustaina."@en
"This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe examines the moderate and uneven recovery occurring across the region. The varying speed of recovery in advanced Europe is closely linked to the degree of overheating and credit expansion going into the crisis. The even more varied speed of recovery in the economies of emerging Europe reflects country-specific vulnerabilities, external financing difficulties, and variations in their reliance on export demand. In the most vulnerable and hard hit countries in emerging Europe, coordinated assistance from the IMF, the European Union (EU), and."@en
"The confluence of multiple adverse shocks-the turbulence in financial markets, high commodity prices, and the appreciation of the exchange rate-have depressed growth in Europe. At the same time commodity prices increases have boosted headline inflation. While containing inflation remains a major concern, supporting the recovery is likely to gain policy prominence in the advanced economies. Looking forward, improvements in prudential regulation could mitigate the procyclicality of credit standards, which should help reduce macroeconomic volatility. Cross-border labor flows are generally seen to."@en
"This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Four chapters deal with MENAP oil exporters, MENAP oil importers, policy challenges facing MENAP, and sustaining the recovery in the CCA countries. Two developments mark the outlook for the MENAP region: the social and political unrest and the surge in global fuel and food prices, which have resulted in unusually large uncertainties in the near-term economic outlook. Meanwh."@en
"The Middle East and Central Asia region grew at 6.5 percent in 2007, marking its best five-year performance over the past 30 years. So far, the turmoil in international financial markets has had a limited impact on the region, and the short-term outlook remains very favorable. The report reviews recent economic developments, assesses the outlook for the coming year, and discusses key policy challenges. In addition, it takes a closer look at both regional topics--such as the rise in inflation in the GCC countries, intraregional capital flows, developments in oil markets, developments in real es."@en
"One year after the deepest recession in recent history, Asia is leading the global recovery. The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific discusses the near-term outlook for the region, as well as the medium-term policy challenges that countries face. As in many emerging and developing markets, Asia rebounded swiftly during 2009 and in the first quarter of 2010, and in the near term the region is expected to continue leading the global recovery. In the medium term, the global crisis has highlighted the importance for Asia of ensuring that private domestic demand becomes a more prominent eng."@en
"The impact of the global financial crisis and recession on the Latin America and Caribbean region was substantial, but the worst is over for most countries. The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own, performing relatively well amid strong external shocks. Many countries have now returned to growth. The region now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global environment that will not be as favorable as in the past. The latest edition of the report explores the lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region, drawing also on t."
"The impact of the global financial crisis and recession on the Latin America and Caribbean region was substantial, but the worst is over for most countries. The region avoided falling into a crisis of its own, performing relatively well amid strong external shocks. Many countries have now returned to growth. The region now faces the challenge of adapting to a new global environment that will not be as favorable as in the past. The latest edition of the report explores the lessons and policy agenda emerging from the recent performance of the Latin America and Caribbean region, drawing also on t."@en
"The global crisis that began in advanced economies has sent severe shocks around the world, posing a test to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The good news is that during this decade the region has made itself more resilient to external shocks, by strengthening policy frameworks and reducing vulnerabilities in its public finances and financial systems. These preparations, the report shows, mean that countries are now more able to respond to the external crisis, many for the first time, with active policies to boost output and employment and protect the most vulnerable groups."
"The global crisis that began in advanced economies has sent severe shocks around the world, posing a test to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The good news is that during this decade the region has made itself more resilient to external shocks, by strengthening policy frameworks and reducing vulnerabilities in its public finances and financial systems. These preparations, the report shows, mean that countries are now more able to respond to the external crisis, many for the first time, with active policies to boost output and employment and protect the most vulnerable groups."@en
"The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and."@en
"Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen t."@en
"A multispeed global recovery is under way, with some emerging markets in the lead and the major advanced economies growing more slowly. This macroeconomic setting has brought a return to easy global financial conditions and high commodity prices-a situation likely to be sustained for some time but unlikely to be permanent. Against that external backdrop, the recovery in the Latin America and Caribbean region overall is advancing faster than anticipated, but moving at different speeds across countries. The report discusses the varying policy challenges that different countries face as the globa."
"A multispeed global recovery is under way, with some emerging markets in the lead and the major advanced economies growing more slowly. This macroeconomic setting has brought a return to easy global financial conditions and high commodity prices-a situation likely to be sustained for some time but unlikely to be permanent. Against that external backdrop, the recovery in the Latin America and Caribbean region overall is advancing faster than anticipated, but moving at different speeds across countries. The report discusses the varying policy challenges that different countries face as the globa."@en
"Strong fundamentals should allow Europe to weather financial turbulence relatively well. Nonetheless, growth is set to ease in 2008 in nearly all countries. Policymakers will need to deal up front with the financial market turmoil, while implementing fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, including in the financial sector, to address vulnerabilities, raise medium-term growth prospects, and deliver on the promise of convergence for emerging Europe. Three analytical chapters discuss reforms to strengthen Europe's financial systems to allow advanced economies to benefit from innovation with."
"The region's prospects continue to be promising, but global developments pose increased risks to the outlook. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 61D percent in 2008 with oil exporters leading the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is expected to taper off, though only modestly. With food and energy prices still rising, inflation is projected to average about 81D percent this year for countries in the region, setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted to the downside, but the region is better placed today to withstand a worsening of the global environment."
"The region's prospects continue to be promising, but global developments pose increased risks to the outlook. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 61D percent in 2008 with oil exporters leading the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is expected to taper off, though only modestly. With food and energy prices still rising, inflation is projected to average about 81D percent this year for countries in the region, setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted to the downside, but the region is better placed today to withstand a worsening of the global environment."@en
"Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance during the past three years has been the best in more than three decades, and higher oil revenues and increased debt relief have been used to make progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Despite spending pressures, most countries have managed to preserve macroeconomic stability with policies intended to support and sustain the region's higher growth. This latest REO is complemented by analyses on the macroeconomic challenges for oil producers, the changing trade patterns, including with China, and the development of government debt mar."
"Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S. Meanwhile, inflation has risen sharply. Policymakers in advanced economies will have to continue to support financial markets and balance risks to real activity with the need to anchor inflation. Emerging Europe is well placed to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, amid concerns about overheating and external imbalances in several countries. Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms will be necessary to ensure a soft landing in these countries and smooth convergence throu."@en
"The main focus of this report is the outlook for the region in the face of the downturn now projected for the U.S. economy and the continuing risks that affect the global outlook. Overall the region is better placed than in the past to navigate the current financial turbulence, given reduced vulnerabilities and stronger policy frameworks. Nonetheless, the report points to risks that the global financial stress could curtail capital flows to the region and world commodity prices could fall more than expected. There are also risks arising from rising inflation and rapid private credit growth in."@en
"Asia has rebounded fast from the depth of the global crisis. Initially, the region was hit extremely hard, with output in most countries shrinking by much more than even those nations at the epicenter of the crisis. But starting in February 2009, Asia's economy began to revive. Exports and industrial production have increased again, financial pressures have eased, confidence has largely been restored. What explains this remarkable comeback? What challenges does the recovery pose to Asian policymakers? These are the main questions addressed in the IMF's October 2009 ""Regional Economic Outlook."@en
"The main focus of this report is the outlook for the region in the face of the downturn now projected for the U.S. economy and the continuing risks that affect the global outlook. Overall the region is better placed than in the past to navigate the current financial turbulence, given reduced vulnerabilities and stronger policy frameworks. Nonetheless, the report points to risks that the global financial stress could curtail capital flows to the region and world commodity prices could fall more than expected. There are also risks arising from rising inflation and rapid private credit growth in."
"Europe's contraction is ending, but the recovery is fragile. Policymakers should look beyond the crisis to secure a durable upswing and address the threats to potential growth from the crisis and the continent's well-known structural rigidities. The report's analytical work stresses the uncertainty surrounding potential growth estimates, and the more volatile environment faced by emerging economies in a tightly integrated region. In the near term, this calls for measures to restore the financial sector to health and for continued macroeconomic support, while preparing for the exit from extraor."@en
"The past year has been one of strong economic performance for the Western Hemisphere, notwithstanding somewhat slower growth in the United States in recent quarters. Can this performance be sustained, and what challenges does the region face? Reviewing macroeconomic prospects and risks, this report pays particular attention to the influence of the external environment on Latin America, and addresses the question of whether Latin America has now succeeded in breaking with its history of periodic growth reversals."
"Prepared by the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes the macroeconomic performance and short-term prospects of sub-Saharan Africa and provides and in-depth analysis of selected topics. The April 2009 Outlook includes two chapters: one on the macroeconomic impact of the global financial crisis on sub-Saharan Africa, and the other on the impact of the crisis on financial systems in the region. Detailed country data are provided in a statistical appendix."@en
"Europe is in a deep recession. Adverse feedback between the financial and real sectors and across borders is likely to delay the recovery and create downside risks. Unprecedented policies have been undertaken to address the crisis-but are they likely to be successful and sufficiently coordinated for a tightly integrated region? To restore trust and confidence in financial markets, additional and forceful action will be essential. Maintaining fiscal support should help soften the downturn, in particular if sustainability is supported by solid medium-term strategies and fiscal frameworks. To be."@en
"The economic slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa looks set to be mercifully brief. Recovery is now under way across the region. The region's relative resilience during this global recession, compared with previous global downturns, owes much to the health of its economies and the strengthening of policy frameworks in the run-up to the crisis. Countercyclical macroeconomic policies played an important role, with nearly two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africa countries experiencing a slowdown in 2009 increasing government spending to buttress economic activity. However, progress toward the Millennium Develo."@en
"The economic slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa looks set to be mercifully brief. Recovery is now under way across the region. The region's relative resilience during this global recession, compared with previous global downturns, owes much to the health of its economies and the strengthening of policy frameworks in the run-up to the crisis. Countercyclical macroeconomic policies played an important role, with nearly two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africa countries experiencing a slowdown in 2009 increasing government spending to buttress economic activity. However, progress toward the Millennium Develo."
"The ongoing global turmoil represents a confluence of negative shocks for Latin America and the Caribbean: a freeze in global credit markets, weaker external demand, and lower commodity prices. But the region is expected to deal with these global shocks better than in previous crises, reflecting progress made in improving macroeconomic fundamentals over the past decade. Still, there are a number of downside risks going forward. Against this uncertain background, the report discusses the implications of the global financial crisis for the regional outlook and the corresponding challenges facing."@en

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"Regional Economic Outlook"
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"Regional Economic Outlook Asia and Pacific: Global Crisis: the Asian Context, May 2009"@en

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