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http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/195761083

Forecasting mountain pine beetle overwintering mortality in a variable environment

Climatic fluctuations are known to be a critical factor in the risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks and overwintering mortality caused by cold exposure is one of the key factors in the population dynamics of MPB. A conceptual model of MPB overwintering survival was developed based on supercooling point (SCP) estimation, where MPB cold tolerance varies daily as a function of daily fluctuations in air and tree phloem temperatures. The model described MPB overwintering survival as exhibited by MPB in the southern Rocky Mountains of the U.S. during the early 1990s. The purpose of the project described in this report was to test this model for use in the northern Rocky Mountains of Canada, and to move quickly toward development of an operational tool that provincial pest managers, especially those in Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, could use with confidence.--Includes text from document.

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  • "A landscape-scale ecophysiological model of mountain pine beetle (MPB) overwintering mortality was developed, validated and communicated. The model was field-validated in Alberta during the winters of 2006-07 and 2007-08. Key model assumptions were tested experimentally during the winter of 2007-08. The model was operationalized for forecasting in Alberta in early 2008 and key outputs (maps and time-series) communicated to the public through a new Natural Resources Canada website. The model describes daily overwintering mortality in the above-snow component of the MPB population. Field and lab tests suggest the model should perform reasonably well during winters characterized by at least one severe cold snap. In 2006-07 the overwintering mortality rate across Alberta was predicted to be 79%, in close agreement with the observed survival rate of 81%. The model suggested that most of the mortality occurred in a single pulse late November 2006, when temperatures across the province dropped suddenly to a winter low between -32°C and -38°C. The following year, in 2007-08, a higher level of mortality was predicted and observed, largely a result of the severe cold snap of late January 2008, when temperatures dropped to a winter low between -35°C and -47°C. In both winters, mortality was predicted and observed to be much higher in northern than in southern Alberta. Despite the overall predictive power of the model, there is substantial unexplained variation in observed mortality. Model performance in relatively mild conditions also remains to be tested. These are two issues that require further research. Putting these observations in context, a retrospective analysis of historical beetle winter weather in Alberta (1951-2008) indicates that the last two winters represent a temporary reversion back to "normal" (i.e., 1980s-style) winter climatic conditions. A return in the coming years to a positive warming trend in winter temperatures would pose a risk of increased potential of outbreaks and eastward range expansion."
  • "Climatic fluctuations are known to be a critical factor in the risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks and overwintering mortality caused by cold exposure is one of the key factors in the population dynamics of MPB. A conceptual model of MPB overwintering survival was developed based on supercooling point (SCP) estimation, where MPB cold tolerance varies daily as a function of daily fluctuations in air and tree phloem temperatures. The model described MPB overwintering survival as exhibited by MPB in the southern Rocky Mountains of the U.S. during the early 1990s. The purpose of the project described in this report was to test this model for use in the northern Rocky Mountains of Canada, and to move quickly toward development of an operational tool that provincial pest managers, especially those in Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, could use with confidence.--Includes text from document."@en

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  • "Forecasting mountain pine beetle overwintering mortality in a variable environment"@en
  • "Forecasting mountain pine beetle overwintering mortality in a variable environment"
  • "Forecasting mountain pine beetle-overwintering mortality in a variable environment"

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