http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/196059536

Self-fulfilling risk predictions : an application to speculative attacks

Currency crises in Europe and Mexico, as well as those unfolding in Asia, have renewed efforts to understand and control the forces underlying speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates. Until the European crises in 1992-93, there was general agreement about the underlying cause of speculative attacks. A country would ultimately face an attack if it ran macroeconomic policies inconsistent in the longer term with the fixed exchange rate. For example, if a government monetized a large fiscal deficit, excessive money growth would cause its international reserve holdings to decline and eventually trigger an attack by speculators. The government would be forced to abandon the fixed exchange rate and let the currency depreciate. The view that deteriorating fundamentals led to currency crises was formalized in a set of "first-generation" crisis models.1.

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