http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/21425559

Modeling of soft factors in the Rand Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Reflecting soft factors has been a major objective since the early design of the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) in 1982. This paper discusses how selected soft factors have been and could be represented in combat models, theater-level decision models dealing with command-control issues, and national-command-level models dealing with issues of national policy, strategy, and controls. The paper also discusses the (limited) empirical basis for the assumptions used and speculates about the degree to which the empirical and subjective basis could be improved. Finally, it notes several recent examples of policy-level analysis that have been strongly affected by assumptions about soft factors involving human and organizational issues--notably factor involving readiness, surprise, national fighting quality, the break-point phenomenon, and command-control adaptability. The paper includes references to reports describing modeling and programming methods developed for the RSAS that could be used in a broad range of other problems involving human and organizational issues. (SDW).

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