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Social security, induced retirement and aggregate capital accumulation a correction and update

"In a 1974 paper in the Journal of Political Economy I discussed the theoretical ambiguity of the effect of social security on private saving and presented statistical evidence that social security does on balance depress saving. Recently, an error was detected in the computer program that was used to construct the "social security wealth" variable. I have now corrected that error and re estimated the original consumer expenditure equation. I have also updated the analysis by including the five years of additional data that have become available since the original study was completed. The new estimates, presented in the current note, continue to indicate that social security substantially depresses private saving. The point estimates of this effect are somewhat lower than before but nevertheless simply that social security depresses saving by about fifty percent of its current value. The estimated reduction in saving is more than two-thirds of the concurrent "contributions" of employees and employers to the social security retirement and survivors fund"--NBER website.

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  • ""In a 1974 paper in the Journal of Political Economy I discussed the theoretical ambiguity of the effect of social security on private saving and presented statistical evidence that social security does on balance depress saving. Recently, an error was detected in the computer program that was used to construct the "social security wealth" variable. I have now corrected that error and re estimated the original consumer expenditure equation. I have also updated the analysis by including the five years of additional data that have become available since the original study was completed. The new estimates, presented in the current note, continue to indicate that social security substantially depresses private saving. The point estimates of this effect are somewhat lower than before but nevertheless simply that social security depresses saving by about fifty percent of its current value. The estimated reduction in saving is more than two-thirds of the concurrent "contributions" of employees and employers to the social security retirement and survivors fund"--NBER website."@en
  • "Governments around the world have enacted or are currently considering fundamental structural reforms of their Social Security pension programs. The key feature in these reforms is a shift from a pure pay-as-you-go tax-financed system, in which taxes on current workers are primarily distributed to current retirees, to a mixed system that combines pay-as-you-go benefits with investment-based personal retirement accounts. <br>This paper discusses how such a mixed system could work in practice and how the transition to such a change could be achieved. It then analyzes the economic gains that would result from shifting to a mixed system. I turn next to the three problems that critics raise about any investment-based plan: administrative costs, risk, and income distribution. Finally, I comment on some of the ad hoc proposals for dealing with the financial problem of Social Security without shifting to an investment-based system."
  • ""The social security program will pay benefits of more than $100 billion in 1978. Public transfers on this scale are large enough to have profound effects on the behavior of the U.S. economy. The most important effect, although not the only one, is likely to be the impact of social security on private saving and aggregate capital accumulation. The present paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by providing new evidence on the extent to which the accumulation of wealth by individual households responds to differences in social security benefits"--NBER website."@en
  • ""Governments around the world have enacted or are currently considering fundamental structural reforms of their social security pension programs. The key feature in these reforms is a shift from a pure pay-as-you-go tax-financed system, in which taxes on current workers are primarily distributed to current retirees, to a mixed system that combines pay-as-you-go benefits with investment-based personal retirement accounts. This paper discusses how such a mixed system could work in practice and how the transition to such a change could be achieved. It then analyzes the economic gains that would result from shifting to a mixed system. I turn next to the three problems that critics raise about any investment-based plan: administrative costs, risk, and income distribution. Finally, I comment on some of the ad hoc proposals for dealing with the financial problem of social security without shifting to an investment-based system"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site."@en
  • ""This paper uses a new and particularly well-suited body of data to assess the impact of social security retirement benefits on private savings. The Retirement History Survey combines survey evidence on the wealth of couples in their early sixties with detailed information from the administrative records of the Social Security Administration on the lifetime earnings of those individuals and the social security benefits to which they are entitled. The present paper uses these data to estimate a model of the determination of preretirement net worth. On balance, the estimates developed in this study favor the extended life cycle model as a theory of asset accumulation and indicate a substantial substitution of social security wealth for private wealth accumulation"--NBER website."@en
  • ""The distribution of wealth is one of the most important and least studied features of our economic life. A lack of good data on household wealth is the primary reason for the inadequate attention to this subject. Moreover, the evidence that is available from household surveys and estate records excludes the most important asset of the vast majority of households: the value of future social security benefits. The purpose of the current paper is to present evidence on the distribution of social security wealth and to use these estimates to analyze the impact of alternative methods of adjusting future benefits for changes in the price level"--NBER website."@en

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