http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/28640094

Deterring regional threats from nuclear proliferation

The most prominent shift in the National Military Strategy is from the global Soviet threat to a new focus on regional contingencies. No threat looms larger in these contingencies than the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. This study examines proliferation trends and proposes a predominately diplomatic strategy for containing the problem. Dr. Spector identifies three waves of proliferation: the first is the five states with declared weapons and doctrine-the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, and China; the second includes a less visible group that developed a covert capability, without testing weapons or declaring a doctrine of deterrence-for example, Israel, India, and probably Pakistan; and, a third wave of would-be proliferators includes radical states like Iraq, Iran, Libya, and North Korea. Spector's political approach is based on the common interest of wave one and two states to prevent further proliferation. Political-economic incentives have already worked in the cases of Brazil, Argentina, Taiwan, and South Africa - states which appear to have abandoned their nuclear weapons programs. Spector does not rule out the option of military force. Force, especially under international sanctions, can be a powerful tool to back diplomatic efforts. Use of force, however, remains a last resort.

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