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El cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable

Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

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  • "Ru he ji zao fa xian zui bu ke neng fa sheng dan zong shi fa sheng de shi"
  • "Thiên nga đen"
  • "Over robuustheid"
  • "El cisne negro"@en
  • "如何及早發現最不可能發生但總是發生的事"
  • "Impact of the highly improbable"
  • "Mengantisipasi peristiwa yang tampaknya mustahil terjadi"
  • "Impacto de lo altamente improbable"@en
  • "A lógica do cisne negro"
  • "Black swan"@it
  • "Black swan"
  • "The black swan"@it

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description

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  • "What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty."--Cover."
  • "¿Qué es un cisne negro? Un hecho improbable, impredecible y de consecuencias imprevisibles. El Cisne Negro del profesor Nassim Nicholas Taleb es best seller en el New York Times y Amazon.com. Un libro que cambiará la visión del mundo. ¿Qué es un cisne negro? Para empezar, es un hecho improbable, sus consecuencias son import antes y todas las explicaciones que se puedan ofrecer a posteriori no tienen en cuenta el azar y sólo buscan encajar lo imprevisible en un modelo perfecto. El éxito de Google y YouTube, y hasta el 11-S, son "cisnes negros". Con ironía, irreverencia y un profundo conocimiento de los caprichos del mundo real, un especialista en incertidumbre y matemático implacable nos conduce por los deliciosos vericuetos de lo improbable."@es
  • "'The Black Swan' is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. Nassim Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world."
  • "Essay over de onzin van economische en andere voorspellingen en onze gebrekkige perceptie van de werkelijkheid."
  • "Not all swans are white, and not all events--no matter what the experts think--are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world."
  • "Les cygnes noirs sont des événements aléatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie ; ils ont un impact énorme, sont presque impossibles à prévoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle. L'auteur exhorte à ne pas tenir compte des propos des "experts", montre comment cesser de tout prévoir et comment tirer parti de l'incertitude."
  • "Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random."@en
  • "Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random."
  • "What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty."
  • "Taleb delivers a groundbreaking look at the role played by the unexpected in life and history, and a fascinating examination of why we know less than we think we do - and what to do about it."
  • ""A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them."--Jacket."
  • "A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we donćt know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible". For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us andshape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything weknow about what we donćt know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan."

genre

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  • "Pronósticos y proyecciones"@en
  • "Pronósticos y proyecciones"
  • "Monographs"
  • "Spanish language materials"@en
  • "CD"
  • "Monografie"
  • "Materiales en español"@en
  • "Electronic books"@en
  • "Electronic books"

name

http://schema.org/name

  • "Hei tian e xiao ying = The Black swan"
  • "Hei tian e xiao ying : ru he ji zao fa xian zui bu ke neng fa sheng dan zong shi fa sheng de shi"
  • "Crni labud : uticaj krajnje neverovatnih zbivanja"
  • "El cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable"@es
  • "El cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable"@en
  • "El cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable"
  • "البجعة السوداء : تداعيات الاحداث غير المتوقعة"
  • "The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable"
  • "The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable"@en
  • "黑天鵝效應 = The black swan"
  • "A lógica do cisne negro : o impacto do altamente improvável"
  • "Černá labuť : následky vysoce nepravděpodobných událostí"
  • "Der schwarze Schwan : Konsequenzen aus der Krise"
  • "Der Schwarze Schwan : Konsequenzen aus der Krise"
  • "The black swan : mengantisipasi peristiwa yang tampaknya mustahil terjadi"
  • "Черный лебедь : под знаком непредсказуемости"
  • "El cisne negro el impacto de lo altamente improbable"@es
  • "Il cigno nero : come l'improbabile governa la nostra vita"@it
  • "Le cygne noir : la puissance de l'imprévisible ; suivi de Force et fragilité : réflexions philosophiques et empiriques"
  • "黑天鵝效應 / 擴充新版"
  • "The black swan the impact of the highly improbable"@en
  • "The black swan the impact of the highly improbable"
  • "Črni labod : spoznajte tveganje in izkoristite pozitiven vpliv nepredvidljivega"@sl
  • "Le Cygne Noir La Puissance De L'imprevisible"
  • "The Black swan : the impact of the highly improbable"
  • "The Black swan : the impact of the highly improbable"@en
  • "Črni labod : vpliv malo verjetnih dogodkov"@sl
  • "黑天鵝效應 : 如何及早發現最不可能發生但總是發生的事"
  • "Hei tian e xiao ying / kuo chong xin ban"
  • "De zwarte zwaan : de impact van het hoogst onwaarschijnlijke"
  • "Der Schwarze Schwan Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse"
  • "Hei tian e xiao ying"
  • "al-Bajaʻah al-sawdāʼ : tadāʻīyāt al-aḥdāth ghayr al-mutawaqqaʻah"
  • "黑天鹅效应"
  • "黑天鵝效應"
  • "Le cigno nero : come l'improbabile governe la nostra vita"
  • "Der schwarze Schwan : die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse"
  • "Chernyĭ lebedʹ : pod znakom nepredskazuemosti"
  • "Il Cigno nero : come l'improbabile governa la nostra vita"
  • "Czarny łabędź : o skutkach nieprzewidywalnych zdarzeń"@pl
  • "The Black Swan"
  • "The Black Swan"@en
  • "De Zwarte Zwaan : de impact van het hoogst onwaarschijnlijke"
  • "The Black Swan : the impact of the highly improbable"
  • "Der schwarze Schwan Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse"
  • "Thiên nga đen = The black swan : xác suất cực nhỏ, tác động cực lớn"
  • "Der schwarze Schwan die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse"
  • "The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable"
  • "Le cygne noir : la puissance de l'imprévisible"
  • "Hei tian e xiao ying = The black swan"
  • "Der schwarze Schwan - Konsequenzen aus der Krise"
  • "The Black Swan : the Impact of the Highly Improbable"
  • "黑天鵝效應 = The Black swan"
  • "The black swan"
  • "Der Schwarze Schwan : die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse"
  • "El Cisne negro : el impacto de lo altamente improbable"

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