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Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control

To accommodate the predicted demand for air traffic service in the year 2000, computer technology must augment human control skills. Preliminary laboratory studies have demonstrated that computer programs can track aircraft, predict their future paths, generate conflict-free clearances, and monitor them for compliance-all automatically. This technology could automate most routine ATC tasks and could change the human role in ATC to that of a system manager. How to make the transition to such a system from the present one and exactly what the future specialist's role would be are the issues addressed by this report. We present three scenarios that delineate a spectrum of transition plans: a Baseline scenario in which the human controller's role is emphasized; and AERA (Automated En Route ATC) scenario in which computers assume the primary control responsibility and perform most ATC functions autonomously; and a Shared Control scenario in which automated, individually invokable modules assist a human specialist who retains the primary responsibility for control.

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  • "To accommodate the predicted demand for air traffic service in the year 2000, computer technology must augment human control skills. Preliminary laboratory studies have demonstrated that computer programs can track aircraft, predict their future paths, generate conflict-free clearances, and monitor them for compliance-all automatically. This technology could automate most routine ATC tasks and could change the human role in ATC to that of a system manager. How to make the transition to such a system from the present one and exactly what the future specialist's role would be are the issues addressed by this report. We present three scenarios that delineate a spectrum of transition plans: a Baseline scenario in which the human controller's role is emphasized; and AERA (Automated En Route ATC) scenario in which computers assume the primary control responsibility and perform most ATC functions autonomously; and a Shared Control scenario in which automated, individually invokable modules assist a human specialist who retains the primary responsibility for control."@en
  • "Provides three scenarios for evolution of the United States' air traffic control (ATC) system from 1981 to 2000: a Baseline scenario in which human control skills are emphasized; an Automated En Route ATC (AERA) scenario in which most routine control functions are performed automatically by computers; and a Shared Control scenario in which human skills are augmented, but not replaced, by machine-based functions. Using the principles of cost effectiveness, technical conservatism, evolutionary progress, and human involvement as guidelines for analysis, these scenarios are compared and contrasted. Human roles, technical issues, and economic implications for each scenario are discussed, leading to the conclusion that human skills are an integral part of the ATC system and should be retained but extended via the Shared Control scenario."@en

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  • "Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control : prepared for the Federal Aviation Administration"
  • "Scenarios For Evolution of Air Traffic Control"
  • "Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control"
  • "Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control"@en
  • "Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control : prepared for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Federal Aviation Administration"@en
  • "Scenarios for Evolution of Air Traffic Control"@en
  • "Scenarios for evolution of air traffic control prepared for the Federal Aviation Administration"@en

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