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Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply

The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters.

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  • "The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters."
  • "The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters."@en
  • "Concerns have arisen over the ability of the military services to meet their recruiting requirements over the next few years. The number of recruiters and the advertising budget have been cut over the course of the drawdown as recruit cohorts have shrunk by over a third. As compared with FY95, a 20 percent increase in accessions-greater than 40 percent for the Army-was needed by FY97 if the services were to meet the force strengths planned for that year. Beginning in the early part of this decade, anecdotal evidence suggested- that recruiters had been having trouble achieving their goals. A preliminary RAND investigation in 1994 indicated that there should not have been a supply shortage in the early-to-mid 1990s. Here, we revisit that question with a more thorough analysis, restricting ourselves to supply-projection models based on econometric analysis of specific supply and demand determinants. (Other parts of the larger research project examine other aspects of recruiting trends.) As the parameters in earlier models were estimated with data from the 1980s, we re estimate the models with 1990s data to determine whether those parameters-and thus the underlying supply process-have changed. We also determine whether any changes in factors influencing supply occurred. Finally, we use the updated model using 1990s data to predict the adequacy of supply in FY97."@en

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  • "Electronic books"@en

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  • "Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply"@en
  • "Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply"@en
  • "Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply"

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