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One reason countries pay their debts renegotiation and international trade

This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade is used, and a large panel data set covering fifty years and more than 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of International Monetary Fund programs. Using the dates of sovereign debt renegotiations conducted through the Paris Club as a proxy measure for sovereign default, it appears that renegotiation is associated with an economically and statistically significant decline in bilateral trade between a debtor and its creditors. The decline in bilateral trade is approximately 8 percent a year and persists for about fifteen years.

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  • "This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade is used, and a large panel data set covering fifty years and more than 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of International Monetary Fund programs. Using the dates of sovereign debt renegotiations conducted through the Paris Club as a proxy measure for sovereign default, it appears that renegotiation is associated with an economically and statistically significant decline in bilateral trade between a debtor and its creditors. The decline in bilateral trade is approximately 8 percent a year and persists for about fifteen years."@en
  • ""This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, I use an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade and a large panel data set covering fifty years and more than 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of International Monetary Fund programs. Using the dates of sovereign debt renegotiations conducted through the Paris Club as a proxy measure for sovereign default, I find that renegotiation is associated with an economically and statistically significant decline in bilateral trade between a debtor and its creditors. The decline in bilateral trade is approximately 8 percent a year and persists for about fifteen years"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site."

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  • "Publication UE/CE"@en
  • "Texte intégral"@en
  • "Publication internationale"@en
  • "Ressource internet"@en

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  • "One reason countries pay their debts renegotiation and international trade"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts renegotiation and international trade"@en
  • "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts Renegotiation and International Trade"@en
  • "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts Renegotiation and International Trade"
  • "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts : Renegotiation and International Trade"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts : renegotiation and internal trade"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and iternational trade"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts : Renegotiation and international trade"@en
  • "One reason countries pay their debts"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts : renegotiation and international trade"@en
  • "One reason countries pay their debts : renegotiation and international trade"
  • "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade"

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