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Mark-recapture experiment for the 2009 chinook salmon spawning escapement in the Atnarko River

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  • "Two-sample, closed population estimates of spawning escapement in Pacific salmon populations have constituted a common practice. This pooled-Petersen markrecapture approach seems appropriate for cases where closed-population assumptions are met, but could ignore major bias sources if violations to these assumptions are overlooked. In addition, the richness of information commonly generated by many Pacific salmon mark-recapture studies is not being utilized when following a pooled- Petersen protocol, therefore missing important opportunities to enrich our knowledge of salmon ecology. The main goals of this paper are: (i) to provide an estimate of the 2009 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning escapement in the Atnarko River applying the standard pooled-Petersen mark-recapture experiment; (ii) to apply an alternative and robust approach to spawning escapement estimation within a model selection framework encompassing suites of open-population and closed-population maximum likelihood estimators based on individual encounter histories and formal testing of primary closed-population assumptions; and, (iii) to demonstrate the use of information provided by individual encounter histories from mark-recapture experiments allowing the reconstruction of migration phenologies and the estimation of stream residence times. Spawning escapements of 3,593 (95% CI: 3,077 - 4,108) females, 5,636 (95% CI: 4,640 - 6,632) males, and 1,532 (95% CI: 1,028 - 2,035) jacks were estimated with the Petersen model for a total spawning escapement of 10,761 (95% CI: 8,745 - 12,775; CV = 5.7%) fish. These numbers exclude the fish removed from the system for hatchery purposes (969). Using the maximum likelihood model selection approach, closure assumptions were violated and best open-population escapement estimates for females, males, and jacks were 8,232 (SE: 615.2), 7,877 (SE: 513.2), and 4,159 (SE: 796.5), respectively, for a total escapement estimate of 20,268 (95% CI: 16,985 - 24,601; CV = 9.5%). These numbers represent the fish escaping the terminal fisheries and entering the study area and include the fish removed from the system for hatchery purposes (969) and their removal's effect on capture probabilities. Accounting for the survival rates of Chinook salmon within the study period (0.95 for females, 0.94 for males, and 0.95 for jacks) left an average of 19,157 total effective natural spawners. The analysis of scales from a sample of salmon carcasses indicated that about 80% of the spawners consisted of age-3 and age-4 individuals with 100% of the age-3 fish and 91.4% of the age-4 fish exhibiting ocean-type life history. Only 37.9% of the age-5 fish and 28.6% of the age-6 fish exhibited this life history type. The analysis of coded-wire-tag data from a sample of adipose-fin-clipped carcasses indicated that 37.0% of the females, 50.6% of the males, and 61.4% of the jacks in the spawning escapement were of hatchery origin, which translated into an overall hatchery contribution of 49%. Important sources of uncertainty in the mark-recapture experiment of the 2009 Atnarko Chinook spawning escapement were associated to a high tag-loss rate, inconsistencies in the record of recaptures and losses-on-capture, and the return to the system of fish previously removed for hatchery purposes. Although these factors influence escapement estimates of mark-recapture experiments in general, they are particularly crucial in analyses dependent on individual encounter histories. The identification of these issues is expected to improve the reliability of spawning escapement estimates derived from robust analytical approaches in future years. It is herein argued that the intensive and extensive sampling effort currently at work in the Atnarko should be capitalized on by following an experimental approach characterized by the evaluation of closure assumptions, mark-recapture model selection, and the optimization of the use of information."
  • ""The main goals of this paper are: (i) to provide an estimate of the 2009 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning escapement in the Atnarko River applying the standard pooled-Petersen mark-recapture experiment; (ii) to apply an alternative and robust approach to spawning escapement estimation within a model selection framework encompassing suites of open-population and closed-population maximum likelihood estimators based on individual encounter histories and formal testing of primary closed-population assumptions; and, (iii) to demonstrate the use of information provided by individual encounter histories from mark-recapture experiments allowing the reconstruction of migration phenologies and the estimation of stream residence times."--Document."

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  • "Mark-recapture experiment for the 2009 chinook salmon spawning escapement in the Atnarko River"