http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/773821425

Russia the impact of climate change to 2030 : geopolitical implications

Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment, National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. In April 2009, CENTRA Technology, Inc., convened a group of regional experts to explore the socio-political challenges, civil and key interest group responses, government responses, and regional and geopolitical implications of climate change on Russia through 2030. The group of outside experts consisted of social scientists, economists, and political scientists. Although the targeted time frame of the analysis was to 2030, the perceptions of decisionmakers in 2030 will be colored by expectations about the relative severity of climate changes projected later in the century. The participants accordingly considered climate impacts beyond 2030 where appropriate. The panelists concluded that Russia is reaching a point where serious deterioration of its physical and human capital is a major obstacle to sustainable economic growth and Russia's capacity to adapt and protect its people will be tested out to 2030. Climate change will add additional stress to energy and transportation infrastructure burdens. However, given Russia's high overall state capacity and the mixed or comparatively tolerable nature of most anticipated climate change impacts over the next twenty years, climate change is unlikely to lead to a general failure of the Russian state.

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