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The Korean military balance : comparative Korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states

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  • "The North Korean sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, and shelling of the densely populated ROK island of Yeonpyeong on November 23, 2010, make it all too clear that the security situation in Northeast Asia continues to be a constant threat to world peace and one that could explode into a crisis or conflict at any time. The tensions between the Koreas -- and the potential involvement of the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the United States of America at both the political and military level -- create a virtually open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. If violence does occur, it will be driven by the military balance between North and South Korea, and potentially by the role that Chinese, Japanese, and US forces play in deterring or fighting a conflict in the Korean Peninsula. If the DPRK and ROK do go to war with conventional forces, the perceptions of risk and capability may be so different on each side -- and involve such complex mixes of the use and threatened use of asymmetric, conventional, nuclear, and long-range missile forces that each side might make a major miscalculation and a conflict might escalate in predictable ways that neither state could control. This report examines total forces, key risks and scenarios, and the data needed for planning arms control, and includes the full range of forces of each key nation from covert operations to nuclear and long-range missile."
  • "This report describes the key results of an analysis conducted to assess the overall balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula. Given the complexity of relations between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), such an assessment of the conventional, asymmetric, and CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear) capabilities on each side is vital to negotiations between states and efforts at arms control. At the same time, there is no one Korean military balance that can be used for policy planning or arms control negotiations until decisions are made about what forces and issues to address. The tensions between the Koreas -- and the potential involvement of the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the United States at both the political and military level -- create a virtually open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. This is particularly true if one considers the number of times that war has grown out of unpredictable incidents and patterns of escalation, the historical reality that the probability of less likely forms of war actually occurring has been consistently higher than what seem to be the most probable contingencies in peacetime, and the patterns of escalation that seem most likely from the viewpoint of a "rational bargainer.""

http://schema.org/name

  • "The Korean military balance : comparative Korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states"
  • "The Korean military balance : comparative Korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states : main report"
  • "The Korean military balance comparative Korean forces and the forces of key neighboring states"