Causation
2016-05-12
XI. Chance, cause, and reason : 1. Fundamental concepts ; 2. Questions and answers ; 3. A unified theory of probability, causality, and induction.
VII. The logic of casual statements as a model of natural language : 1. Introduction -- 2. Laws of nature : Laws and theories ; Causal laws -- 3. Subjunctives and dispositions : Causal modalities and subjunctives ; Causal dispositions ; Elliptical causal implication -- 4. Causality : Causes and effects ; Contravening causes and completeness -- 5. Iterated modalities : Change of dispositions ; Comprehensive modal logics.
II. The calculus of inductive probability : 1. Introduction -- 2. The calculus of inductive probability : Axioms ; Truth-functional and modal logic -- 3. Some theorems of the calculus of inductive probability : Probability and the logical modalities ; Multiplication principles ; Addition principles -- 4. Relative frequency -- 5. Bayes' theorem and induction : Bayes' theorem ; Confirmation by repeated experimentation ; The confirmation theorem ; Applications to induction -- 6. Unconditional probability.
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IV. Probability and action : 1. Introduction -- 2. Peirce's pragmatism : The pragmatic principle of meaning ; Sameness of meaning ; Analysis ; The descriptive component ; The normative component ; Probability and pragmatism -- 3. The traditional theory of utility : Utility and choice ; Quantitative probabilities and valuations ; Infinite utilities ; Two paradoxes of utility ; Insurance and gambling ; Simple ordering of preferences and uncertainties -- 4. The book theorem.
Chance, cause, reason; an inquiry into the nature of scientific evidence
III. Alternative inductive logics and the justification of induction : 1. Three inductive logics -- 2. Inductive logics for simple models of reality : Simple models of reality ; Carnap's inductive logics -- Induction and statistical uniformity ; Inductive logics and Bayes' method -- 3. Hume's thesis on the justification of induction : Alternative inductive logics and Hume's thesis ; Historical comment ; Speculative character of Hume's thesis -- 4. Frequency theories of probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; The frequency theory of inductive probability.
1977
IX. Cause and chance in space-time systems : 1. Introduction -- 2. Space-time systems : Induction and repetition ; Indexical symbols and properties ; Cellular automata ; Local and global laws -- 3. Causality in nature : Uniformity of nature ; Determinism ; Near-determinism ; Tychism -- 4. Determinism and chance : Embedded systems and probability ; Entropy and randomness ; Determinism and randomness.
X. The presupposition theory of induction : 1. Introduction -- 2. The epistemological status of causal necessity : Empirical and a priori concepts ; Causal necessity is a priori ; Causal necessity is irreducibly model -- 3. Causal models of standard inductive logic : Possible causal systems ; Verification of causal systems -- 4. The presupposition theory of induction : The a priori aspect of inductive probability ; Epistemological status of the presuppositions -- 5. Historical antecedents : Keynes' principles of induction ; Kant's theory of causality -- 6. Summary of the presupposition theory.
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I. Concepts and problems : 1. Questions and answers -- 2. Mathematics and empirical science : Logical and empirical statements ; The logical and empirical status of geometry ; The logical modalities -- 3. Specifying the meaning of a technical term -- 4. Inquiry and argument ; Kinds of logic ; The logic of empirical inquiry -- 5. Deductive and inductive arguments : Deductive arguments ; Inductive arguments and probability -- 6. Problems and methods : The four main problems of this book ; Theories and models in empirical science ; The methods of this book.
V. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability :1. Introduction : Preview ; Historical remarks -- 2. The calculus of choice: grammar : The marking game ' Choice and act trees ' Complete sets of trees -- 3. The calculus of choice: simple ordering : Marking and logical equivalence axioms ; Simple ordering of preferences ; Simple ordering of uncertainties -- 4. The calculus of choice: normal forms : Normal form axiom ; Comparative values ; Comparative probabilities -- 5. The calculus of choice: quantitative : Utilities and quantitative probabilities ; Proof of the main theorem ; Savage's axiomatic system -- 6. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability : Introduction ; The normative use of the calculus of choice ' Probability statements and logical truth -- 7. Closely related theories of inductive probability : The a priori theory ; The personalistic theory.
VIII. The dispositional theory of empirical probability : 1. Introduction -- 2. A fair coin : Dispositional model of the fair coin hypothesis ; Causal and probabilistic dispositions ; Dispositional models of atomic empirical probability statements -- 3. Dispositional models of empirical probability theories : Empirical probability theories ; The dispositional theory of empirical probability ; The positivistic theory of empirical probability -- 4. Alternative theories of empirical probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; Peirce's dispositional-frequency theory of probability ; The personalisitic account of empirical probability.
VI. The logic of casual statements as a formal language -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The structure of the logic of casual statements : Grammar ; Axioms ; Proofs and theorems -- 3. An abstract interpretation : Examples ; Modal models ; Logical truth -- 4. The mechanical character of a formal language : Arithmetization of a formal language ; Godel's incompleteness theorem ; Machines and algorithms ; Machines and formal language -- 5. Some theorems of the logic of casual statements : Derived rules of inference ; Some metatheorems ; Paradoxes of implication.
1977
Chicago
University of Chicago Press
Beweisführung
Burks
Arthur W.
Arthur Walter
Arthur Walter Burks
1915
2008
Informatik
Wissenschaft
Evidence
ilu
9780226080871
0226080870
9780226080888
0226080889
Induction (Logic)
Chance